Table 4 Key assumptions underlying scenarios (base case and extreme cases)

Adjustments (all scenarios)

Germany: narcolepsy 2% of prescriptions in 2003; adult ADHD accounts for 10% of prescriptions in 2003

England: Provigil^R prescriptions cover narcolepsy exhaustively, no off-label use of modafinil for ADHD; modafinil for ADHD will be priced at the same level as Provigil^R; adult ADHD accounts for 10% of prescriptions in 2003

Peak diagnosis prevalence

England: 3.90%

Germany: 4.20%

England: 3.90%

Germany: 4.50%

England: 4.20%

Germany: 4.80%

Peak treatment prevalence

England: 2.54%

Germany: 3.15%

England: 2.54%

Germany: 3.38%

England: 2.94%

Germany: 3.84%

New product availability

dMPH (Focalin^R) 2007;

MPH-TDS 2008;

LisDEX 2008;

ARM/MOD ./.

dMPH (Focalin^R) 2007;

MPH-TDS 2008;

LisDEX 2008;

ARM/MOD 2009

New products, specific notes

ARM/MOD not approved;

LisDEX without clinical advantage over MPH-MR;

dMPH (IR/MR) profile comparable to MPH-IR and MPH-MR08, respectively;

MPH-TDS advantage limited to "convenience", no sensitization problems

ARM/MOD comparable to ATX;

LisDEX: reduced abuse and diversion potential shown;

dMPH (Focalin^R) profile comparable to MPH-IR (dMPH-IR) and MPH-MR08 (dMPH-MR), respectively;

MPH-TDS advantage limited to "convenience", no sensitization problems

ARM comparable to ATX;

LisDEX: non-scheduled for reduced abuse potential;

dMPH (Focalin^R) profile comparable to MPH-IR and MPH-MR08, respectively;

MPH-TDS advantage limited to "convenience", no sensitization problems

New product pricing

Focalin^R = branded MPH-IR;

Focalin^R XR = MPH-MR12;

LisDEX and MPH-TDS 50% premium over MPH-MR12;

ARM/MOD n.a.

Price of dMPH-IR (Focalin^R) = branded MPH-IR;

dMPH-MR (Focalin^R XR) = MPH-MR12;

LisDEX and MPH-TDS 50% price premium over MPH-MR12;

ARM/MOD = ATX (20% b.i.d.) in Germany;

ARM/MOD for ADHD in England priced like Provigil^R.

Focalin^R = branded MPH-IR;

Focalin^R XR = MPH-MR12;

LisDEX and MPH-TDS 100% premium over MPH-MR12;

ARM/MOD = LisDEX (D)

Established products

No price increases (except for DEX in England in "Extremely High Case" scenario).

Generic MPH-IR market up to 90% (Germany) or 95% (England), respectively; Focalin^R up to 20% of MPH-IR market share.

No generic substitution for ATX or MPH-MR market segments.

ATX administered b.i.d. in 20% of patients.

Treatment intensity

No change compared to 2005 (current trend ends 2006)

Continuation of current trend, phasing out by 2010

Continuation of current trend, phasing out by 2012