Supervision trajectories of male juvenile offenders: growth mixture modeling on SAVRY risk assessments

Table 3 Multivariate odds ratios and confidence intervals for predictors of latent trajectory membership for the risk/need areas personality, social support and treatability (N = 5205)

Personality	Latent class trajectories Odds ratios [confidence intervals]
Personality	Rapid responders	Rapid escalators	Highly problematic
Nagelkerke R² .158
Age at first assessment	.85** [.78–.94]	.85** [.76–.95]	.87** [.83, .91]
Prior violent offenses
0 (reference category)	1.00	1.00	1.00
1	1.99* [1.02, 3.86]	1.83 [.93, 3.62]	1.31* [1.01, 1.69]
2–9	2.69** [1.49, 4.86]	1.93* [1.06, 3.52]	1.68** [1.36, 2.09]
≥ 10	5.84** [2.91, 11.73]	5.04** [2.49, 10.21]	4.00** [2.92, 5.50]
Prior non-violent offenses
0 (reference category)	1.00	1.00	1.00
1	1.14 [.79, 1.64]	1.40 [.90, 2.16]	1.39** [1.15, 1.68]
2–9	1.11 [.82, 1.49]	1.78** [1.26, 2.52]	1.56** [1.33, 1.82]
≥ 10	1.53 [.88, 2.68]	2.35** [1.29, 4.27]	2.18** [1.61, 2.95]
Previous detention	1.62* [1.03, 2.56]	1.12 [.65, 1.92]	1.77** [1.36, 2.30]
Number of sector changes	1.63** [1.40, 1.90]	2.21** [1.89, 2.58]	1.31** [1.20, 1.44]
Sentence > 1 year	1.97** [1.45, 2.69]	2.21** [1.89, 2.58]	1.66** [1.44, 1.91]

Social support	Latent class trajectories Odds ratios [confidence intervals]
Social support	Rapid integrators	Rapid deterioraters	Poorly integrated
Nagelkerke R² .137
Age at first assessment	.89* [.81, .98]	.86** [.78, .95]	.96 [.91, 1.00]
Prior violent offenses
0 (reference category)	1.00	1.00	1.00
1	1.70* [1.00, 2.89]	1.28 [.71, 2.28]	1.13* [.88, 1.46]
2–9	1.61* [1.01, 2.57]	1.62 [.99, 2.66]	1.28* [1.04, 1.58]
≥ 10	1,47 [.75, 2.89]	2.61** [1.39, 4.89]	2.43** [1.79, 3.30]
Prior non-violent offenses
0 (reference category)	1.00	1.00	1.00
1	1.31 [.91, 1.90]	1.68** [1.17, 2.40]	1.52** [1.24, 1.85]
2–9	1.62** [1.20, 2.19]	1.52** [1.12, 2.06]	2.01** [1.71, 2.36]
≥ 10	2.20** [1.22, 3.97]	1.90* [1.03, 3.49]	3.63** [2.68, 4.91]
Previous detention	2.03** [1.28, 3.23]	1.73* [1.09, 2.76]	1.88** [1.44, 2.46]
Number of sector changes	1.77** [1.51, 2.06]	2.07** [1.79, 2.40]	1.31** [1.19, 1.43]
Sentence > 1 year	1.12 [.85, 1.49]	1.18 [.88, 1.58]	1.80** [1.55, 2.09]

Treatability	Latent class trajectories Odds ratios [confidence intervals]
Treatability	Rapid responders	Rapid escalators	High resisters
Nagelkerke R² .133
Age at first assessment	.86** [.80, .92]	.84** [.74, .90]	.86** [.82, .90]
Prior violent offenses
0 (reference category)	1.00	1.00	1.00
1	1.47* [1.00, 2.16]	1.31 [.79, 2.19]	.88 [.70, 1.12]
2–9	2.15** [1.54, 2.99]	1.15 [.73, 1.80]	1.09 [.89, 1.32]
≥ 10	2.07** [1.30, 3.31]	2.03* [1.12, 3.68]	1.27 [.93, 1.74]
Prior non-violent offenses
0 (reference category)	1.00	1.00	1.00
1	1.43** [1.10, 1.86]	2.01** [1.36, 2.98]	1.71** [1.41, 2.06]
2–9	1.86** [1.50, 2.30]	2.32** [1.66, 3.23]	2.12** [1.81, 2.48]
≥ 10	2.66** [1.73, 4.11]	2.53** [1.32, 4.82]	3.13** [2.26, 4.35]
Previous detention	2.26** [1.57, 3.24]	1.50 [.87, 2.58]	1.88** [1.40, 2.53]
Number of sector changes	1.88** [1.66, 2.12]	1.89** [1.60, 2.24]	1.64** [1.48, 1.80]
Sentence > 1 year	.91 [.75, 1.10]	1.36* [1.00, 1.84]	1.48** [1.29, 1.69]

The “mildly problematic” trajectory class serves as reference category in the personality risk/need area, the “mildly impaired integrators” is the reference category in the Social support risk/need area, and the “mild resisters” is the reference category in the treatability risk/need area
Previously detained = 1, not previously detained = 0. Duration sentence ≤ 1 year = 0, duration sentence > 1 year = 1
Multinomial logistic regression analyses, with backwards stepwise elimination, was used to link covariates to trajectory class membership
* p < .05, ** p < .01

ISSN: 1753-2000