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Table 3 Multivariate odds ratios and confidence intervals for predictors of latent trajectory membership for the risk/need areas personality, social support and treatability (N = 5205)

From: Supervision trajectories of male juvenile offenders: growth mixture modeling on SAVRY risk assessments

Personality Latent class trajectories Odds ratios [confidence intervals]
Rapid responders Rapid escalators Highly problematic
Nagelkerke R2 .158    
Age at first assessment .85** [.78–.94] .85** [.76–.95] .87** [.83, .91]
Prior violent offenses
 0 (reference category) 1.00 1.00 1.00
 1 1.99* [1.02, 3.86] 1.83 [.93, 3.62] 1.31* [1.01, 1.69]
 2–9 2.69** [1.49, 4.86] 1.93* [1.06, 3.52] 1.68** [1.36, 2.09]
 ≥ 10 5.84** [2.91, 11.73] 5.04** [2.49, 10.21] 4.00** [2.92, 5.50]
Prior non-violent offenses
 0 (reference category) 1.00 1.00 1.00
 1 1.14 [.79, 1.64] 1.40 [.90, 2.16] 1.39** [1.15, 1.68]
 2–9 1.11 [.82, 1.49] 1.78** [1.26, 2.52] 1.56** [1.33, 1.82]
 ≥ 10 1.53 [.88, 2.68] 2.35** [1.29, 4.27] 2.18** [1.61, 2.95]
Previous detention 1.62* [1.03, 2.56] 1.12 [.65, 1.92] 1.77** [1.36, 2.30]
Number of sector changes 1.63** [1.40, 1.90] 2.21** [1.89, 2.58] 1.31** [1.20, 1.44]
Sentence > 1 year 1.97** [1.45, 2.69] 2.21** [1.89, 2.58] 1.66** [1.44, 1.91]
  1. The “mildly problematic” trajectory class serves as reference category in the personality risk/need area, the “mildly impaired integrators” is the reference category in the Social support risk/need area, and the “mild resisters” is the reference category in the treatability risk/need area
  2. Previously detained = 1, not previously detained = 0. Duration sentence ≤ 1 year = 0, duration sentence > 1 year = 1
  3. Multinomial logistic regression analyses, with backwards stepwise elimination, was used to link covariates to trajectory class membership
  4. p < .05, ** p < .01
Social support Latent class trajectories Odds ratios [confidence intervals]
Rapid integrators Rapid deterioraters Poorly integrated
Nagelkerke R2 .137    
Age at first assessment .89* [.81, .98] .86** [.78, .95] .96 [.91, 1.00]
Prior violent offenses
 0 (reference category) 1.00 1.00 1.00
 1 1.70* [1.00, 2.89] 1.28 [.71, 2.28] 1.13* [.88, 1.46]
 2–9 1.61* [1.01, 2.57] 1.62 [.99, 2.66] 1.28* [1.04, 1.58]
 ≥ 10 1,47 [.75, 2.89] 2.61** [1.39, 4.89] 2.43** [1.79, 3.30]
Prior non-violent offenses
 0 (reference category) 1.00 1.00 1.00
 1 1.31 [.91, 1.90] 1.68** [1.17, 2.40] 1.52** [1.24, 1.85]
 2–9 1.62** [1.20, 2.19] 1.52** [1.12, 2.06] 2.01** [1.71, 2.36]
 ≥ 10 2.20** [1.22, 3.97] 1.90* [1.03, 3.49] 3.63** [2.68, 4.91]
Previous detention 2.03** [1.28, 3.23] 1.73* [1.09, 2.76] 1.88** [1.44, 2.46]
Number of sector changes 1.77** [1.51, 2.06] 2.07** [1.79, 2.40] 1.31** [1.19, 1.43]
Sentence > 1 year 1.12 [.85, 1.49] 1.18 [.88, 1.58] 1.80** [1.55, 2.09]
  1. The “mildly problematic” trajectory class serves as reference category in the personality risk/need area, the “mildly impaired integrators” is the reference category in the Social support risk/need area, and the “mild resisters” is the reference category in the treatability risk/need area
  2. Previously detained = 1, not previously detained = 0. Duration sentence ≤ 1 year = 0, duration sentence > 1 year = 1
  3. Multinomial logistic regression analyses, with backwards stepwise elimination, was used to link covariates to trajectory class membership
  4. p < .05, ** p < .01
Treatability Latent class trajectories Odds ratios [confidence intervals]
Rapid responders Rapid escalators High resisters
Nagelkerke R2 .133    
Age at first assessment .86** [.80, .92] .84** [.74, .90] .86** [.82, .90]
Prior violent offenses
 0 (reference category) 1.00 1.00 1.00
 1 1.47* [1.00, 2.16] 1.31 [.79, 2.19] .88 [.70, 1.12]
 2–9 2.15** [1.54, 2.99] 1.15 [.73, 1.80] 1.09 [.89, 1.32]
 ≥ 10 2.07** [1.30, 3.31] 2.03* [1.12, 3.68] 1.27 [.93, 1.74]
Prior non-violent offenses
 0 (reference category) 1.00 1.00 1.00
 1 1.43** [1.10, 1.86] 2.01** [1.36, 2.98] 1.71** [1.41, 2.06]
 2–9 1.86** [1.50, 2.30] 2.32** [1.66, 3.23] 2.12** [1.81, 2.48]
 ≥ 10 2.66** [1.73, 4.11] 2.53** [1.32, 4.82] 3.13** [2.26, 4.35]
Previous detention 2.26** [1.57, 3.24] 1.50 [.87, 2.58] 1.88** [1.40, 2.53]
Number of sector changes 1.88** [1.66, 2.12] 1.89** [1.60, 2.24] 1.64** [1.48, 1.80]
Sentence > 1 year .91 [.75, 1.10] 1.36* [1.00, 1.84] 1.48** [1.29, 1.69]
  1. The “mildly problematic” trajectory class serves as reference category in the personality risk/need area, the “mildly impaired integrators” is the reference category in the Social support risk/need area, and the “mild resisters” is the reference category in the treatability risk/need area
  2. Previously detained = 1, not previously detained = 0. Duration sentence ≤ 1 year = 0, duration sentence > 1 year = 1
  3. Multinomial logistic regression analyses, with backwards stepwise elimination, was used to link covariates to trajectory class membership
  4. p < .05, ** p < .01